MLB Home Run Derby Predictions

Home Run Derby Predictions

The 2019 Home Run Derby field is out for tonight on ESPN. It is one of my favorite events to watch in sports. As usual there are some stars competing in it in the format MLB has used past couple of years. The field consists of Matt Chapman, Pete Alonso, Josh Bell, Alex Bergman, Joc Pederson, Ronald Acuna Jr., Carlos Santana and finally Vladimir Guerrero Jr. In this post I will provide my predictions of each matchup on who wins and my overall winner of the event.

Round 1

1 Matt Chapman vs  8 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Well this is a buzzkill Christian Yelich withdrew from the derby citing a back injury.  A potential championship matchup is gone between Guerrero Jr and Yelich. Guerrero Jr. presents himself as one of the most powerful hitters in MLB. Do not let his slow start of only eight homers turn you away. He is one of the best batting practices hitters in MLB has to offer you. Just go watch his videos and be entertained. I will give an excuse that he was called up late compared to his fellow home run hitter as well. A shocking state is the number 1 seed has never advanced to the championship in the home run derby. With Yelich now gone that state continues in a not so shocking upset, as I will go with Vladimir Guerrero Jr over Matt Chapman. As for Matt Chapman I believe Hunter Renfroe and his 27 home runs deserved this spot more. Chapman will most likely be unprepared as well on such short notice despite being a known hard hitter. I do not know what MLB has against Padres players.

2 Pete Alonso vs 7 Carlos Santana

I’ll be honest with you this one here is a no brainer. Alonso leads the majors with 20 home runs of 400 plus feet to go along with his now 30 home runs. He also set the Mets rookie record for home runs in a season.  Santana has very little on Alonso in pulling off an upset. One  is the home crowd cheering him on to give him energy. Santana also plays in Cleveland so that will be an advantage in knowing the spots in the park in where to hit it. However it will not be enough to upset Alonso in the end.

3 Josh Bell vs  6 Ronald Acuna Jr.

Oh boy I cannot wait for this matchup. Acuna Jr. is one of the biggest young starts this league has to offer. While Bell breakout season has put people on notice of how good he really is. With 26 home runs on the year Bell can hit it far. He hit it out to the river at PNC Park twice something only three other players have ever done. Want to hear a nice stat Bell has seven home runs of over 440 feet. Where Acuna Jr. has a stat of being third in average home run distance meaning consistency. However Bell will squeeze it out here and move on to the next round using the extra time to his advantage. Oh also did I mention Bell hit three home runs in a game. My gut feeling tells me this will be the best first round matchup. Especially  with Yelich now being out and this matchup with be a tossup for many on who to choose.

4 Alex Bregman vs  5 Joc Pederson

Bergman is the only contestant from last year contest to be in this year derby. I do not qualify Bregman as a home run hitter nor as a powerful one either. Where Pederson is a known home run hitter who returns to the derby for the first time since his runner up finish in 2015. In this battle I will take Pederson because of his power edge and honestly both Pederson and Bregman should not be in the field over more well deserved players.


8 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs  5 Joc Pederson

This matchup will be a lot closer than people will think. However Guerrero’s power will outmatch Pederson’s power to advance to the final. It does not help Pederson has to go to his backup batting practice thrower because the Padres hate the Dodgers either. However  knowing Guerrero will  get crowd energy and will easily get that extra time for hitting two shots over 440 feet in the end he advances to the final.

2 Pete Alonso  vs  3 Josh Bell

This matchup could go either way as both can hit it really far meaning that extra time will be there for them. However Pete Alonso batting practice power is well known across the league. Oh and he loves right field meaning he does not have to worry about the big wall in left field either. His power will just be a little too much for Bell to overcome. Both have hit 20 home runs 400 plus feet. However give me Alonso swagger and power in the finals with that top five batting practice power ever measured. As a result we make derby history in two rookies fighting for the title. This matchup will be a slugfest and a lot of home runs will be hit far and long.


2 Pete Alonso vs  8 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The matchup of the two rookies going head to head in the finals. One has been born to do this since he was a little kid watching his dad. The other is a rookie sensation who hits the ball far and is taking the league by storm setting records. Alonso hits the ball hard as well  as anyone being only second behind Gary Sanchez. Both are great batting practice hitters and one will become a league favorite at the end of this. I expect Alonso to go Aaron Judge on us tonight. So even though  Guerrero has been preparing and dreaming for this moment of his life and has power to give Alonso a run for his money.  I truly believe Alonso is the favorite to win it all  and take the title in what will be a great home run derby of balls being hit far into the night.


Winner Pete Alonso

By Ashkan Motamedi










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